From Crisis to Commitment: Turning geopolitics into a credible fossil‑fuel phase‑out plan

The jolt geopolitics just delivered

The conflict involving Iran has shifted energy security back to the top of ministerial agendas. Colombia’s environment minister says it could accelerate a coalition for a fossil‑fuel phase‑out, with Santa Marta’s upcoming summit positioned as a proving ground. The risk, as ever, is that diplomatic gravity pulls leaders toward polished communiqués while grids, investors and households are left waiting for what actually makes fossil use fall: projects, procurement, and policy that unlocks both at scale.

This time can be different—if the summit converts geopolitical urgency into a work plan that matches real‑world electricity‑system needs. That means pairing high‑level language (phase‑down, phase‑out, unabated) with concrete actions on clean build‑out pace, system flexibility, and finance structures that crowd in private capital while managing affordability and reliability.

What the grid actually needs in the 2020s

Look past the rhetoric and the speedometer already exists. The United States offers a useful benchmark for build‑out tempo. Early‑2024 data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed developers planned to connect on the order of 60+ GW of utility‑scale solar in 2024—more than any prior year—and to roughly double grid‑scale battery capacity to approach 30 GW by year‑end. Wind additions were set to be more modest but still material. Those aren’t targets; they’re interconnection‑backed project schedules. They demonstrate that, with policy visibility and bankable offtake, systems can add tens of gigawatts per year.

Two implications follow:

• Scale is feasible. Annual clean additions at the tens‑of‑gigawatts level are now logistically and financially possible in large markets.
• Flexibility must keep pace. Storage and grid upgrades are no longer optional add‑ons—they are the rate‑limiting steps that turn high renewable penetrations into dependable power.

The same dynamic is visible globally. Curtailment is rising in sunny and windy regions because flexibility and transmission lag generation. Investors have learned that a credible phase‑out plan is, operationally, a flexibility plan.

India’s 2035 targets: credible—but conservative?

India’s newly announced 2035 goals—to lift the share of green electricity and cut emissions intensity—have been described by many analysts as realistic. That matters: India is adding demand roughly equivalent to a mid‑sized European country every year, while still relying heavily on coal for baseload power. Achievable near‑term targets can stabilize investor expectations, accelerate grid planning, and cut capital costs.

But “achievable” can shade into under‑ambition. India’s recent pace in solar auctions, rooftop deployment, and transmission expansion suggests capacity to go faster with the right enabling policies. A credible translation of 2035 goals into system operations would include:

• Annual renewable and storage auctions with clear multi‑year volumes and standard contracts.
• Coal fleet flexibility standards (minimum stable load reductions, faster ramping) to integrate more variable renewables without jeopardizing reliability.
• Transmission corridors that connect high‑resource states to load centers, paired with advanced forecasting and market reforms that reward flexibility services.

India’s direction of travel is encouraging; the summit can help raise the ceiling by showcasing de‑risking tools and flexibility technologies that make higher renewable shares bankable.

Storage and flexibility are the hinge

Lithium‑ion batteries have become the workhorse for 1–4 hour balancing, shaving peaks and absorbing solar surpluses. But deep decarbonization requires a portfolio: medium‑ and long‑duration storage (8–100+ hours), demand flexibility, grid‑forming inverters, and fast interties.

Two developments this week underscore that range:

• Iron‑air “rust” batteries. A Dutch startup, Ore Energy, is pursuing iron–air storage based on the reversible rusting of iron. The appeal is straightforward: abundant materials, potentially very low energy‑capacity costs, and multi‑day durations (often modeled around 100 hours). Round‑trip efficiency is lower than lithium‑ion, but for rare, prolonged lulls in wind and sun, a cheaper kilowatt‑hour that can ride out three days beats an efficient one that empties in three hours. Critically for Europe, iron‑based storage can diversify supply chains away from lithium, nickel, and cobalt, complementing sodium‑ion and flow batteries.

• Molecular solar batteries. Researchers in Germany have shown a water‑soluble redox copolymer that stores solar energy with over 80% charging efficiency for several days and can release that energy as hydrogen on demand at about 72% conversion efficiency (lab‑scale). It’s early‑stage, but it points to a possible convergence of storage and green hydrogen production, especially for off‑grid and industrial applications where chemical vectors are advantageous.

Together, these advances sketch a flexibility stack: lithium for daily cycling; iron‑air and flow batteries for multi‑day resilience; power‑to‑X (hydrogen, heat) for sector coupling and seasonal shifting; and demand‑side orchestration to flatten peaks. The policy question is no longer whether to back a single winner—it’s how to procure a portfolio without overpaying.

From declaration to delivery: a summit checklist

To turn geopolitical momentum into power‑sector change, the Santa Marta summit can anchor a short list of measurable deliverables.

1. Ring‑fenced finance tied to fossil displacement

• Establish concessional capital windows and guarantees specifically for projects that demonstrably reduce fossil generation hours (e.g., storage co‑located with coal‑to‑clean conversions, grid reinforcements that unlock stranded renewables).
• Expand the use of contracts for difference (CfDs) and revenue floors for long‑duration storage and firm clean power so that developers can finance assets with low capacity‑factor revenues.
• Create a standardized “coal transition facility” term sheet that blends sovereign guarantees, development‑bank capital, and private debt to refinance and retire sub‑critical coal units ahead of schedule while funding replacement clean capacity.

2. Storage procurement targets that match renewable ambition

• Commit to multi‑year storage auctions with technology‑neutral, performance‑based criteria (duration, availability, response time) and minimum tranches for 8–12h and 24–100h resources.
• Use proven models: California’s procurement orders drove grid‑scale batteries from near‑zero to more than 10 GW in just a few years; similar capacity mechanisms in Europe can bring forward long‑duration pilots at commercial scale.
• Publish targets as a percentage of peak load and energy not served under extreme events so they’re aligned with reliability outcomes, not just nameplate gigawatts.

3. Supply‑chain diversification as an energy‑security policy

• Support domestic and allied‑market manufacturing for non‑lithium chemistries (iron‑air, sodium‑ion, aqueous flow) and advanced power electronics to reduce concentration risks.
• Fund recycling and second‑life programs to close loops on lithium‑ion and reduce primary mineral demand.
• Coordinate testing and standards so new chemistries can qualify for markets and interconnection faster.

4. Grid reforms that unlock speed

• Put binding timelines on interconnection studies and require “ready‑to‑build” criteria to clear queues; adopt connect‑and‑manage where feasible.
• Accelerate transmission with corridor designations, anticipatory investment rules, and cost‑allocation frameworks that reflect system‑wide benefits.
• Modernize system operation: procure inertia, fast frequency response, and voltage support from inverter‑based resources; mandate grid‑forming capabilities in new plants on a glidepath.
• Open balancing markets to aggregated demand response and distributed storage with transparent data access and settlement.

5. Milestone‑based accountability and transparency

• Commit to annual dashboards tracking: installed and contracted renewables and storage (by duration), transmission approvals, fossil generation hours avoided, and reliability metrics (LOLE, EUE).
• Use independent verification and public data. A recent U.S. episode outside the power sector—California classifying a ride‑hailing service as human‑driven rather than autonomous—shows how definitions determine what data gets reported and who is held accountable. Phase‑out plans need that same regulatory clarity to prevent “accountability gaps.”

The pace check: matching commitments to system outcomes

What would success look like by the next two years—not in slogans, but on the grid?

• Signed contracts, not just targets: at least two annual tranches of storage procurement concluded, including one multi‑day resource auction in each participating region.
• Transmission acceleration: permitting completed for priority corridors connecting top‑quartile wind and solar resource zones to load, with shovels in the ground on at least one cross‑border intertie.
• Fossil displacement metrics: a documented reduction in fossil generation during evening peaks in systems adding large batteries; verified increases in minimum stable load flexibility at coal and gas plants without reliability incidents.
• Curtailment management: a measurable fall in renewable curtailment during shoulder months due to storage and demand programs, despite higher installed capacity.
• Cost and equity guardrails: retail bill impact analyses published alongside procurement, with targeted support for low‑income consumers and small businesses where costs rise temporarily.

A high bar—made practical

Geopolitics can catalyze action, but only if the summit turns anxiety into architecture. The EIA’s build‑out data prove the pace is achievable. India’s 2035 framing shows that “achievable” beats “aspirational” when coupled to delivery mechanisms. And emerging flexibility options—from rust‑powered multi‑day batteries to molecular solar storage that doubles as green hydrogen—expand the toolkit to replace fossil reliability.

A credible fossil‑fuel phase‑out plan is not a single policy or a single technology. It is a sequence: finance that de‑risks projects, procurement that buys services the grid needs, supply chains that are resilient, grids that are ready, and accountability that keeps everyone honest. If Santa Marta delivers that sequence, the next crisis won’t send ministers scrambling for fossil backstops—it will vindicate the systems they built in calmer times.